Friday was the calm before a weekend of stormy conditions and hopefully substantial windblown snow deposits in useful places. However, Storm Bert comes with a big dose of uncertainty over detail and in particular how long precipitation will fall as snow on Saturday!
There are several weather warnings stacked on the Met Office map including an Amber Warning for the Central Highlands, plus Southern Scotland down into the Pennines. Within the amber areas some locations could see 20 to 40cm of snow fall in Severe Gale force winds at relatively modest elevations. At height Storm to Hurricane Force winds will give sustained whiteout in the Highlands.
Big autumnal storms can really help get a base going, and ultimately big thaw/freeze cycles are crucial to getting a durable base. But, there is a risk of torrential rain at all levels for at least a period, and some forecast model runs keep the freezing level at or below Munro Level till the early hours of Sunday, while others bring the sub-tropical air in much faster.
At Glencoe, the Access Chairlift reopened for the winter season on Thursday. Note the sledge park is not yet prepared as the machine made snow will not be pushed out until after the weekend storms have passed, the Plateau Cafe is not yet open for the season and is expected to open early December.
Some drifts are starting to build on Meall a Bhuiridh, but it is the very early stages of things filling in so far as snowsports go. For sledging the weekend forecast makes it very unlikely, there is some potential for a lull on Saturday afternoon in part due to the SE wind direction, but it is only showing on some model data.
At Nevis Range the mountain gondola is generally open Wed to Sun through November and December until Sunday 22nd December, however it will not operate this weekend given the forecast. Gondola will operate daily from Boxing Day through Sunday 5th January, after which all facilities at Nevis Range will close until early February.
Elsewhere all uplift facilities are closed until snowsports commences. The Daylodge is open on CairnGorm for snacks / drinks / toilets providing the ski road is open.
The Lecht is the area closest to being able to offer lift served snowsports and some main runs are not that far away with good drifts of wind blown snow building along the fences. If there is a net gain through the next few days storm cycles then an early start might be achievable, but it really is a wait and watch scenario and things could go backwards.
The best outcome for the weekend from the season perspective, is a slow rise in the FL with a sustained period of wet sticky snow getting driven downslope into key gullies and fence lines across the resorts. Followed by a not to savage thaw and reasonably quick refreeze, this would get good accumulations built in critical areas on already frozen and dry ground.
We are now touring the UK with the 75th Warren Miller snowsports film tour through mid February 2025! One lucky film goer to our Glasgow Warren Miller premiere left with a 2024/25 Ski Scotland 4 Area Pass in the intermission prize giveaway and we have two more to give away in the national sweepstakes.
Upcoming hosted Premieres:
Edinburgh // Dominion Cinema // Sun 24 Nov (1pm)
Aviemore // Glenmore Lodge // Thu 28 Nov
Cardiff // Chapter Arts // Sun 1 Dec (3.45pm)
Inverness // Eden Court // Tue 3 Dec
Fort William // Highland Cinema // Thu 5 Dec
Dundee // DCA Cinema // Mon 9 Dec
Crieff // Strathearn Arts // Thu 12 Dec
The tour will take a break over the festive period before hitting the road again in January. The final November show is a special Aviemore screening in support of Disability Snowsports UK at Glenmore Lodge on Thursday 28th November at 7.30pm. Tickets are 15 with 70% going to DSUK.
Get Tickets NOW:
www.warrenmiller.co.uk .
For more dates and venues and ticket links explore the link above.
All club fields are waiting for the first skiable snow of the new season.
Please check club access rules / availability if not a club member / pass holder.
Weardale: https: //skiweardale.com/ .
Allenheads:
http://ski-allenheads.co.uk/ .
Yad Moss: https: //yadmoss.co.uk/ .
Raise: https: //www.ldscsnowski.co.uk/ .
Sadly the on mountain facilities of Lowther Hills Ski Club in Southern Scotland have been dismantled, thus our summit webcam was removed from service in June. It may still be possible to operate the portable rope tows in the villages going forward, but new volunteers with requisite engineering / mechanical background are required for the club to contine.
At 11pm in the West at the base of Glencoe at 366m the temperature was -3.5°c, while near the summit at 1097m it was -4.7°c with a light SE breeze..
The Met Office Summit Run AWS on Aonach Mor (1130m) reported -5.8°c with a SSW wind at 6 gusting 10 mph.
In the East the CairnGorm Met Office Summit AWS (408ft/1245m) was at -7.5°c with a WSW wind at 2 gusting 8 mph. The Cairnwell AWS reported -4.3°c at 3061ft, with a NW wind at a mean of 3 gusting 9 mph.
Our webcams at Glencoe update from around 7.40am, the Leadhills webcam in the Borders updates 24/7.
There are several Met Office weather warnings including an Amber Warning for the Central Highlands and Southern Scotland, within the amber area 20 to 40cm of snow could potentially fall at relatively modest elevations on Saturday. There are separate (at this stage yellow) warnings for wind, the strongest winds will be from the SE quadrant on Saturday and this direction means the worst impacts at lower elevations could be in some rather unusual locations, and be more impactful on trees due to the worst wind not coming from the prevailing SW direction.
In similar circumstances last December the SE winds associated with Storm Gerrit, flattened countless trees onto the A82 up and down the Great Glen, and left the A82 into Fort William looking like a tornado had passed through! The Nevis Range mountains and downslopes, the Northern Cairngorms and NW slopes of the Monadhliath are particularly prone to ferocious gusts downslope to low elevations in SE storms.
At height Storm to Hurricane Force winds will give sustained whiteout through Saturday morning into the afternoon, there is likely to be periods of hours of sustained hurricane force winds on the highest / most exposed mountain areas. Gusts towards 120 to 130mph are not out of the question on and downslope of the Cairngorms Plateau.
The freezing level will rise erratically from the SW, with Munro Level temperature initially around -3 to -5°c on Saturday AM. The timing is uncertain and both GFS ensembles and the Met Office MOGREPS have a spread of over 10°c at 6pm on Saturday for Munro Level temperature. It is likely some lower locations could see snow for hours longer than some nearby higher areas, Tyndrum has been known to have heavy snow falling while it is raining at all levels of Glencoe ski area!
It is not absolutely nailed, but it is fairly certain that the freezing level will rise above the summits if not on Saturday afternoon by the early hours of Sunday. The later the rise, the more likely the shorter duration of exposure to the warmest air in the warm sector and early rain on Sunday may revert to a wintry mix later in the day. Another very windy day expected.
Sunday should see increasing brightness break through, this could initially be restricted to higher elevations as an inversion layer may develop with summit temperatures rising into low double figures from the West. At Munro Level around +7°c initially, but rising +10 to +11°c in the West.
Possibly a dip in temperatures by several degrees on Monday with the possibility of another bout of heavy snowfall for the West Highlands on very high winds, though this time more likely from the SW direction.
Early indications are precipitation clearing to showers, which may retreat to just the Northern Cairngorms and NW Highlands on Tuesday as winds substantially moderate and turn NW. A day to assess what Storm Bert has or has not brought to the mountains!
Lowther Hill: Leadhills webcam online 24/7. Lowther Hill Summit webcam withdrawn due to removal of club infrastructure from the hill.
GLENCOE: Most webcams are online and the first updated images will be from around 7.40am. Summit and Base AWS online with no issues.