General Situation // Scottish Ski & Winter Activity Report // Winterhighland

The next 2 to 3 days look like being best suited to weather watching from afar, keeping a close eye on the forecasts, weather stations and webcams to see how the storm unfolds. There will be some snow loss tonight, as the freezing level looks set to go above the tops in the early hours of Thursday before falling back gradually during the day. By the weekend the snow situation on the hills as of Wednesday will be old history!

Since our initial update the temperature and wind have both been on an upwards trajectory on the summit of CairnGorm, having risen from -2.5°c at dusk to -0.2°c at 10pm with a Force 12 wind gusting to 112mph.

With an AMBER rain warning covering the Southern Cairngorms and Angus Glens from midnight till 6pm on Thursday, it wont just be skiers and snowboarders keeping an eye on the upland temperature on Thursday.

With Storm Force winds widespread on the mountains, sustained high level blizzards are anticipated, what is not certain is just what the snow level will be. With SE winds, ferocious gusts can be expected on and immediately downslope of the Cairngorm Plateau, and this could drive wet sticky snow further down CairnGorm than temperature alone might suggest. This sort of set up has potential to be very good for the likes of the Ciste Gully!

However the not so good news is that the lower elevations are going to take a further hit through the night and earlier on Thursday. On Wednesday Glenshee only opened the road side beginners area and Plastic Slope Poma which has a robust machine made base, trying to preserve the thin base on other accessible terrain. Given the strong winds and uncertainty of the snow/rain level on Thursday, Glenshee have taken the decision to keep all uplift closed on Thursday and will review on Friday.

CairnGorm had already taken the decision that all facilities will be closed on Thursday.

The Lecht and Glencoe will review in the morning. It will be pretty nasty at the Lecht in the morning with driving sleet expected before the snow level gradually lowers to and then below carpark level. Once the snow level is below carpark level, road problems are likely to develop quickly on the East coast access roads, given the intensity of the precipitation and projected wind speeds.

Glencoe usually fares best in SE winds, but there are limits and at higher speeds exact direction can be critical, but Glencoe is probably the best gamble for Thursday, but there is a catch, the Cliffhanger will be required to access the upper mountain and that lowers the wind threshold as there is insufficient snow for the Wall T-bar and it is also unlikely any plateau runs will last the night except perhaps Old Mugs Alley.

If heading to Glencoe for sledging it is advisable to arrive before 2pm at the latest for sledging to get a decent amount of time on the hill. First chair up at 9am, last chair up at 3.45pm and last chair down at 4pm. Sledgers keep in mind, the Access Chair will be busier at the end of weekend days with snowsports underway.

All facilities at Nevis Range have been closed since Monday 5th January, including the base area. There is no lift assisted access to Aonach Mor for tourers or winter climbers at this time.

:: Lift Ticket Info / Weekend preview

Due to the forecast for Storm Force winds, CairnGorm and the Lecht have suspended online ticket sales for after Wednesday. Keep an eye on updates / forecasts.

Significant snowfall is anticipated for mountains exposed to onshore wind during the later part of this week, while exact wind direction will determine where sees the greatest accumulations, Glenshee is currently favoured out of the five snowsport areas. Across the East though there is likely to be substantial storm recovery work required even if wind speeds do moderate for Saturday, and there is significant forecast uncertainty on that at present. At this early stage, Sunday looks more promising, but things could change.

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:: England Club Fields

All club fields are waiting for new snow to arrive.

For both Weardale and Allenheads, you need to join the club with a season pass, these are still available for both at this time.

Please check club access rules / availability if not a club member / pass holder.

Weardale: https: //skiweardale.com/ .
Allenheads: http://ski-allenheads.co.uk/ .
Yad Moss: https: //yadmoss.co.uk/ .
Raise: https: //www.ldscsnowski.co.uk/ .

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:: Mountain Weather

At 6pm in the West at the Glencoe SSC hut at 850m the mid mountain temperature was +0.6°c, wind at 24 gusting 44mph. At the Top of the Access (671m) it was +1.5°c. At Base level (366m) it was +3.4°c.

The SAIS summit AWS on Aonach Mor was reporting -1.6°c. The Met Office station was reporting a South wind at 34 gusting 71mph. At the CIC Hut (680m) it was +2.5°c. At Tulloch Station (237m) the temperature was +6.6°c.

In the East the CairnGorm Met Office Summit AWS reported -1.4°c with a Hurricane Force[/red/ South Easterly at a mean of 84 gusting 101mph. At Aviemore the temperature at 6pm was +6.9°c.

The Met Office Cairnwell AWS (3061ft /934m) reported +0.2°c with a South Easterly at a mean of 50 gusting 73mph.

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:: Mountain Forecast Discussion

The Met Office has a lengthy Yellow Warning for rain spanning through end of Friday covering a swath of the East and SE Highlands, this has been upgraded to Amber through 6pm Thursday for the SE Highlands. Some parts of the Amber area may see 150mm of rainfall equivalent precipitation by the end of the Amber warning.

As the snow level drops below the lower slopes, heavy snowfall and drifting will start to affect the East Coast access roads. So keep abreast of the developing weather situation. Some of the forecast model output is indicative of some mountain locations potentially seeing OVER 3 feet of new snow!

Sustained mountain snowfall throughout Thursday will be heaviest towards the South and Eastern Cairngorms in a curved arc that may extend towards Glencoe and the Southern most parts of the West Highlands. Blizzard conditions, with sustained whiteout at height in widely Storm Force winds, expected to be Hurricane Force on the Cairngorm Plateau and surrounding northern downslopes. Wind speeds also likely to be elevated through the Nevis Range mountains due to topographic acceleration of South Easterlies. Around 0°c at Munro Level pre-dawn, lowering -1°c by early afternoon, lowering -2°c from the East around or soon after dusk.

Friday sees the sustained heavy precipitation continue in the SE Highlands, but perhaps less intense and becoming more showery further North and West, but that will partially depend on wind speed and exact direction. Minus 2°c at Munro Level, possibly lowering -3°c.

Persistent hill snow is set to continue for the Cairngorms on Saturday, but both precipitation intensity and wind strength are expected to lessen somewhat. But with speeds still likely to be widely 35 to 40 with gusts to 50 to 60mph and likely 75mph plus on and near the Cairngorm Plateau, visibility will be appalling with any elevation and may limit any storm recovery work that is required. There is some uncertainty about the freezing level also, which will impact the extent of work required to reopen / keep open the East Coast Access Roads.

At this stage Sunday looks to have more promise for lift served snowsports in the East, but until we are through the next couple of days of the storm and see how forecasts are shaping up for the weekend it is too early to make any definitive plans. But given the potentially significant snow totals possible for some locations, at least set in motion possible plans!

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:: Webcams and Weather Stations

Lowther Hill: Leadhills webcam is online (24/7).

GLENCOE: All mountain webcams online and the first updated images are from the Top of the Access Chair shortly after 7am, other cams come on by 8am. The mid mountain weather station wind direction is not working, other data valid.

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